Sakura Cherry Blossom Forecast for 2011
UPDATE (FEB 4, 2011): tenki.jp has reduced it’s annual Japan cherry blossom forecast for 2011, a screenshot of which is below. It looks like Tokyo is on the line for blooming in March, and we are looking at the turn of the month for most of Japan. Fukuoka, Kochi, and warmer climates seem to have an early date. The further north you go, dates will be later and later in April.
Major news outlets are reporting that the cherry blossoms (sakura) will bloom slightly early in 2011. I will update this post when there are more precise predictions out in February, however signs point to there being early blooms with
Tokyo sakura are expected to start blooming around March 25, reaching full bloom in early April, possibly on the 2nd.
Osaka cherry blossoms will start opening in around March 27th, and bloom in full on April 4th.
Fukuoka, Kumamoto, and Kochi will start early on March 23rd and are expected to bloom in full around April 1st.
The early bloom, if it happens as expected, should make for some beautiful school and company entrance ceremonies. Local parks that have “Sakura Matsuri” or Cherry Blossom Festivals, tend to start them in late February or early March and go on through until the end of the season in mid to late February.
As I mentioned above, I will update this post if I see any changes in the 2011 cherry blossom sakura forecasts.
Tenki.jp has updated their calendar for the sakura forecast as of February 23. I’ve put it below:
UPDATE March 25, 2011
Here is the latest map from Tenki.jp, released a few days ago. I’ve heard that Miyazaki and some of the earlier places are starting to see a little blooming.
It looks like a lot of the dates are delayed from the original. I’m sure when the full bloom reaches the Tohoku region, there will be some amazing and sad pictures of the trees that survived against the backdrop of the damage from the earthquake and tsunami.
(I added a post about some places in Tokyo for cherry blossoms at night and another about places to see cherry blossoms around the Kobe area.)
I’m hoping it’s early this year because we’re in Tokyo from March 21 until the evening of the 31st so we’re keeping our fingers crossed.
Bev, I think you might be in luck. At any rate, the sakura festivals at parks will be going on the whole time. It looks like your trip will cover most of the Japanese schools’ Spring Break time so there will be a lot of events and pretty much everything will be open for visitors.
If they bloom before you come back, I hope you can find a good place for Yozakura (viewing them at night) because that’s always been my favorite kind of hanami.
I didn’t even know you could view them at night. That sounds amazing. I sure hope we get to see them at least partially open.
They set up lights to illuminate them from below or different angles to make them look good. I also think it tends to be less crowded in the evening (depending on the park). I was just looking at some forecasts, and it looks like you might just catch the beginning of it all. If you have a Japan Rail Pass, and you want to be sure to catch them you can always hop a shinkansen down to Fukuoka or somewhere that blooms early!
Would it be possible to do a day trip to Fukuoka? I don’t know how far that is from Tokyo. We were thinking of buying a rail pass but then thought we might book the overnight trip to Kyoto instead.
Thanks for the info! I’m going to Tokyo March 28-April 4 and hoping they reach full bloom while we’re there!
Tisha, if you are going to be in Tokyo or anywhere south of that, all predictions seem to indicate you’ll get to see them!
Bev, you may be on the line, but there’s always a chance that mother nature will send a few warm days at the right time and the bloom will come early. I believe Fukuoka is about a 5 to 7 hour shinkansen ride from Tokyo. It’s not that bad if you go from Kyoto, and there is always the option of an overnight train or ferry if you really want to go. Kyoto is a must when visiting Japan, and Hiroshima is also a great place to go if you don’t want to go as far as Fukuoka. Hiroshima has a lot of famous cherry blossom viewing spots, and is worth a visit.
I hope you get to enjoy it!
Also, for people who are in Japan now and think they might miss it, please check if there are any plum blossom parks (ume blossoms) near you. I know that Yushima Tenjin in Tokyo has them and they may be in bloom from now until some time in March! Some people think they are even prettier than sakura are!
Is that map showing first blooming date or full bloom?
Also, do you know any places that do the night viewing in Tokyo?
Hey Tisha, The map up there shows when they are expected to start, but it’s just a forecast so please don’t be surprised if it’s a bit earlier or later than that. Full bloom will be a few days after they start.
I added a post about some of the more famous night cherry blossom spots in Japan, but most of the established spots have lighting for night. Larger, more famous spots will even have festivals specifically for yozakura. Here’s the post: http://www.cheaptraveljapan.com/traditional-things-to-see-in-japan/famous-tokyo-cherry-blossom-sakura-night-viewing-spots
Thanks for all this information, traveljapan. Now we just have to leave things up to Mother Nature. But even if we just see the start of the blossoms, there are so many other things we’re excited about seeing so it will be a fabulous trip no matter what happens.
Thanks. It will be great… and any trip to Japan is all about the food! Not just sushi, but the Japanese style pastas, okonomiyaki, takoyaki, sweets and cakes, shabu shabu, yakiniku, curry shops… I could go on for a few pages.
Enjoy!
Yes, we’re anxious to try some of the foods you’ve mentioned. I didn’t even know there were Japanese pastas. Whenever we go away and the weather’s not good I always say it’s an excuse to eat more, so I’ll just follow that rule if the cherry blossoms don’t co-operate!
There’s one with tarako (a roe) and seaweed that is absolutely great (and a spicy version in which the roe are mixed with a bit of red chili pepper). Beware of Neopolitan spaghetti if you are not a big fan of ketchup instead of pasta sauce (you heard me!).
Thanks to you and Tish above as well for ideas for more posts… maybe we need a “Western Foods Gone Japanese” type article sometime soon.
thanks for this info! We’ll be in Japan on March 23-30, we were hoping to see sakura, but it seems it might not yet fully bloomed at this dates. We’ll be in Kansai area on the 26th-30th.
How does a sakura look like when it is just 20-40% blooming?
how accurate are the predictions? Was the prediction last year spot on? thanks
Lawrence – thank you for the comments. To be honest, I don’t remember how well the predictions were for last year. As the time approaches, the local news starts doing the “sakura” forecast every day. They are usually pretty close, and the cherry blossoms seem to be relatively reliable, blooming around the same time every year. If you are going to be around until the end of March, I think you have a really good chance of seeing at least a partial bloom.
The buds will be on the trees as well so even a partial bloom can be nice. If you are in Kansai and can get to Himeji, Himeji Castle park is hands down my favorite place to see the cherry blossoms. There is also a very inexpensive, cute little zoo right in the park. If people are vacationing with kids in Kansai, it’s a must.
Anyway, most major cities are getting predictions to start around March 27 or 28. Hiroshima and parts of Kyushu are seeing predictions for as early as March 25th.
Last year, the cherry blossoms bloomed very very early. Tokyo saw its first blossoms on the 22nd! I’ll be keeping an eye on the story for updates, and if I hear them, I’ll update in turn.
Lawrence – I took a look at my post from last year with the cherry blossom forecast for 2010, and compared it to the actual start days.
Last year, the prediction was a day early for Tokyo and 3 days early for Kyoto and spot on for Fukuoka and Hiroshima. So last year’s forecast wasn’t too bad if that helps.
Thanks a lot for the information traveljapan:) Hopefully we can catch at least a partial bloom.
Thanks for the info.
But how was last year’s Early February prediction in relation to the actual dates?
I got a feeling it might be a little off and there will be a big change in the forecast come early March.
I agree there’s a good chance the dates are going to change. Last year’s post is here: Sakura Cherry Blossom Forecast 2010. As I mentioned above, the initial predictions from tenki.jp (put out every Feb) were only a few days to 0 days off.
I’m not promising anything, but if people happen to come too early, the cherry blossom festivals in many places will already be going on so there is a lot of fun to be had.
Good luck to all who will be coming for at least a partial bloom!
Thanks so much for all your help with this. It sort of feels like we’re waiting to win a lottery. I’d hate to fly out just as the buds were unfolding and miss them by one day. I’d rather miss them by a whole week.
I wish you luck! Even a partial bloom will be enough to have a great hanami picnic and go out to one of the cherry blossom festivals going on somewhere. Please enjoy spring break in Japan whether nature cooperates or not!
I will go with group tour to Takayama on April 2nd , Nagoya on April 3rd , Kyoto on April 4th , Nara & Osaka on April 5th.
I have a very good chance to see full bloom in Kyoto , Nara & Osaka , don’t I?
Jitnart sorry about the delay in publishing the post. It got caught up in the spam filter because it was your first time posting.
I think you are going to have good timing. You’ll be there at the end of spring vacation as well so if you can go on a weekday when school is in session, the parks won’t be quite so crowded.
Have fun!
Tenki.jp has updated its cherry blossom forecast 2011 as of 2/23, but it looks to be about the same as the previous one. I’ve put it in the main article above.
What dates are the spring vacation?
we arrive in Tokyo 23 March, move to Hiroshima on 26-28th, kyoto 29-30, nagoya 31-1st April, Kawaguchiko 2-april and back to tokyo 3-6 april.
So we look to be perfect for the start of blooms in Hiroshima and Kyoto, and hopefully perfect timing for the best blooms when back in Tokyo.
I’m guessing the early part of the trip might be in the middle of school holidays?
It looks like we better plan to get up early to go to Miyajima when in Hiroshima, last time we were there in June 09 it got pretty busy by mid morning, I’m guessing school holidays could be really busy.
Hi Stephen – Spring vacation usually runs from late March until early April. I think your trip should give you pretty good timing. The end of your trip might be after the school vacation. Even during spring vacation, weekdays are lighter than weekends.
I agree with waking up early for Miyajima… but Miyajima is one of my favorite places in Japan so I could spend all day there… if you were there before in June, the summer vacation probably hadn’t even started yet.
Sounds like you’re going to have a pretty busy trip, but Miyajima is a must see! (or in your case – a must see again!)
I will go around 15-19 April. If I could not see sakura in Tokyo. Can you suggest the place out side Tokyo that we can view full bloom? We can do 1 day trip from Tokyo.
Thks
Simply put, heading North and East, you can chase the sakura. When you get to Japan, if you are not satisfied with the sakura in Tokyo at the time, you can chase them up to Sendai or Niigata with a day trip. It would be nice if you could see something on your list at the same time.
Even people coming toward the end of April will be able to see them if they head up to Hokkaido (which is worth it if you have a lot of time and money to spend on transportation).
You never know with the sakura, you might be satisified with one of the parks in Tokyo or just north of Tokyo. I’ve also seen some “outlier” blooms that totally ignore what the weatherman tells them is supposed to happen.
It looks like you’ll be there for a pretty short time so I hope you can see some satisfactorily or consolidate some sightseeing to get it all in. After only 4 days, I’m sure you’ll want to come back for more.
Soniya,
The place I recommended for a day trip to see sakura is the area north of Japan (Fukushima and Sendai) that have been hit hardest at this time. I hope that the area can recover quickly, but it’s all the more reason to visit and support the area with tourism when they are ready for visitors again.
So, wow, with the earthquake and all that’s going on now do you think it’s still safe to visit Tokyo in a couple weeks?
I think it’s as safe as any other time. There isn’t a lot of damage right now in the Tokyo area, so a few weeks from now (if all this craziness ends) things should be relatively normal there.
In the areas hit by the tsunami, however, I don’t know if things will ever be “normal”. What used to be towns look like muddy fields. It’s incredible.
I and every thai people are very sorrow about the tragedy in japan. Hope everything is back to normal ASAP.
I will go to takayama kyoto and osaka on 1-6 April.
Is there any damage there? Does the major earthquake effect sakura blooming?
Dear Jitnart, Kyoto and Osaka are fine. I’ll be posting an article about popular sakura spots in Kansai sometime today or tomorrow.
I don’t think the earthquake will have any effect on the cherry blossoms except in Tohoku where trees themselves were damaged.
I have updated the above post with the map from Tenki.jp to reflect the latest updates. I’ve heard that places like Miyazaki have begun to see their first cherry blossoms!
I was supposed to be in Japan to see all the sakura in Tokyo but I had to postpone my trip to 4/29 – 5/12. Do you think I will be able to see any sakura in Hakodate on 5/9?? I don’t want to leave Japan until I see some sakura with my very own eyes! haha…
Hi Jennifer, I hope you know how lucky you are to get to go to Hakodate. It is absolutely beautiful and the food is amazing. If you like dairy products and/or seafood, you may need to buy new clothes at Uniqlo!
As for the sakura, I think you have a good shot of seeing them. The predictions I see now put most of Hokkaido at full bloom around April 10th.
One of my greatest memories of the Hakodate area is going into an onsen with some friends and then coming out and buying little bottles of milk from a milk vending machine in the lobby, drinking it, and then napping on a wicker chair for a few hours.
I’m coming over to Nagoya in next few days (16-22 April). Will there be a chance to see sakura in Nagoya or places around Nagoya (I’m thinking to visit Osaka or Kyoto as well)?
I was supposed to come early April, but lot of things to do over here, can’t leave my job, so had to postpone it.
Thanks for the info.
I don’t know what state they’ll be in but there’s also a time after the sakura fall from the trees when they are really beautiful and as you walk through the park you have them underfoot and blowing in the wind.
Even if folks miss the main time, there’s a term in Japanese – “Sakura Fubuki” that describes when the cherry blossoms are blowing off the trees and it seems almost like it’s snowing!
You can always chase the blossoming northward (and it seems the blooms were later than predicted this year) but the parks are beautiful even as the cherry blossoms take their leaves (pun intended).
I love sakura verry much. thankyou……………
thank you